Study suggests nearly 500,000 Australians could be affected

Nearly half a million Australians could be living in at-risk tenancies, according to 2026 research from the Tenancy Skills Institute.

Its data came from 327 Australasian property managers surveyed between March 2026 and July 2026. Collectively, they manage more than 125,000 tenancies.

Across Australia, 268 property managers identified nearly 6,000 of the 90,000 tenancies they manage as at risk of failing in the private rental market.

That estimate points to nearly half a million Australians living in at-risk tenancies. It is 115,000 higher than the same survey last year.

Researchers used the paper to examine how households may leave the private rental market and enter homelessness. They also looked at how property managers can help sustain tenancies through early action.

State rates vary across Australia

Northern Territory recorded the highest share of at-risk tenancies at 14.05% in 2026. Western Australia followed at 13.02%, while Queensland recorded 7.10%.

Queensland’s result is an average that includes early intervention data. The institute says that support significantly improves the average.

By contrast, Tasmania recorded the lowest share at 2.45%.

More than 50% of the main factors behind tenancy failure could be resolved through early intervention and a well-designed rental subsidy scheme, the institute said.

As a result, the institute called for a coordinated national homelessness prevention and early intervention strategy.

A Queensland early intervention case study found at-risk tenancies fell by nearly two-thirds. However, the institute did not provide the full percentage in the information supplied.

Paul Tommasini, chief executive of the Tenancy Skills Institute, said: “Our 2026 research paper provides insights into the alarming scale of tenancies at risk of failing in the private rental market right now.”

Survey partners included REIA, REINZ, REIACT, REIQ, REISA, REINT, REIT, REIV and REIWA. Industry partners also included Cloudstaff, Mitchell PT and MRI Software.

According to the institute, the survey is Australasia’s only tenancy sustainment survey of property managers.

The Tenancy Skills Institute did not give a national start date for any rental subsidy scheme or strategy. It also did not break the nearly half a million estimate down by state population.