Value Over Volume Drives Market Change
The global smartphone average selling price is set to reach $565 in 2026, according to Omdia’s latest research. Manufacturers are shifting their focus from high-volume, low-cost models to premium, high-value devices.
Omdia forecasts a 12.2% decline in global smartphone shipments, bringing the total to 1,093 million units in 2026. Despite the reduction in volume, the market’s total value is expected to grow by 6.1% year-on-year.
The rise in average selling prices, up from $467 in 2025 to $565 in 2026, reflects increased component costs. Memory prices for DRAM and NAND flash have risen significantly, with more than 80% growth in the first quarter of 2026.
This divergence between shipment volume and market value is being propelled by a sharp rise in retail pricing. The global smartphone average selling price is forecast to increase by 21%, marking an all-time high in growth rate and dollar value for the industry.
Component costs will remain structurally elevated, forcing vendors to pass some of these costs onto consumers. Vendors are actively scaling back their low-end product lines and increasing production shares for mid-to-high-end smartphones in their portfolios.
Impact on Global Markets
Emerging markets such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to experience significant declines in demand due to their reliance on low-end devices and sensitivity to price increases.
In contrast, premium-heavy developed markets are expected to see milder declines. Major smartphone brands, including Samsung and Huawei, have increased retail prices for new-generation products to offset higher manufacturing costs.
Jusy Hong, Senior Research Manager at Omdia, stated, “The smartphone industry is currently going through a period of significant disruption, as vendors work to manage short-term component cost pressures as effectively as possible.”
Hong also mentioned that a market stabilization phase is anticipated in the second half of 2027, as component prices begin to stabilise. The expected readjustment phase, with potential price declines, could occur in early 2028.
Runar Bjorhovde, Omdia Principal Analyst for smartphones, noted that vendors are increasingly relying on broader business models to maintain operational resilience. This includes cross-selling ecosystem devices and upselling services to increase user value.
Meanwhile, some vendors are gaining early-mover advantages by increasing component inventories to minimise the impact of future price hikes. Once DRAM and NAND pricing starts to stabilise, the market is expected to focus on strategic priorities.
Last updated: 29 June 2026, 11:47 am
