Omdia puts first-quarter volume at 15.8 million units
US PC shipments, excluding tablets, fell 7.0% year on year to 15.8 million units in the first quarter of 2026, according to Omdia. It was the sharpest annual decline since the third quarter of 2023.
Omdia linked the drop to component supply constraints, higher memory and storage costs, and weaker demand after the Windows 11 refresh cycle used up much of the near-term commercial pipeline.
The annual comparison was also tough. In the first quarter of 2025, tariff-related inventory pull-forward inflated shipments. Meanwhile, the channel added modest stock in the first quarter of 2026 ahead of expected memory price increases.
Low-cost devices were hit harder than the wider market. Shipments of PCs priced under $500 dropped 18.7% from a year earlier as rising DRAM and NAND costs squeezed margins.
Omdia said supply of DRAM and NAND is increasingly shifting to AI server applications. As a result, vendors have less room to keep entry-level PC prices low.
Scott Braverman, senior analyst at Omdia, said: “The impact of component supply constraints on PC shipments materialized in the US market in the first quarter of 2026.”
Business and consumer PC demand
Consumer PC shipments fell 9.5% year on year in Q1 2026. Omdia said buyers delayed purchases because of higher prices and difficult economic conditions.
Business shipments declined 5.0% in Q1 2026. Remaining Windows 11 refresh activity supported demand, and some companies bought inventory ahead of further price rises.
According to Omdia’s May forecast, the first half of 2026 is likely to be the stronger period for business PC demand. However, the same cost pressures are expected to keep entry-level prices elevated through 2027.
Education shipments fell 6.2% in the first quarter of 2026. That was better than the double-digit declines recorded in each of the previous three quarters.
Braverman said: “Budget-constrained segments also faced pressure, although the education segment declined just 6.2% in Q1 2026.”
Omdia said schools rely heavily on lower-priced devices, so rising prices could reverse that improvement. Government procurement also declined as price increases strained public sector budgets.
Both education and government are expected to remain under pressure through 2026, with meaningful recovery unlikely until 2027, according to Omdia.
Average selling prices rose 4% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Omdia expects that growth to reach 12% in the second quarter and exceed 12% in the second half of 2026.
For full-year 2026, Omdia forecasts US PC shipments will decline 14.4% from 2025. The research firm expects annual volume to fall from 71,516 to 61,237, with shipments measured in thousands of units.
