CSIRO modelling shows $124/MWh versus $131/MWh by 2050
CSIRO’s latest GenCost report found electricity from a coal and gas-heavy grid would cost $124 per megawatt hour by 2050, compared with $131 per megawatt hour under the current renewables-led net zero plan.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported the modelling on 15 July 2026. In 2026 dollar terms, that gap amounts to a saving of at least 5%.
The comparison centres on long-run system costs in 2050 rather than only current household bills. That finding has added to debate in New South Wales over the cost of the energy transition.
HumeLink is the state’s flagship transmission project. It is designed to connect Snowy Hydro and renewable energy zones in southern NSW to Sydney.
HumeLink’s $4.9 billion blowout
HumeLink’s original estimate was $1.3 billion. That figure has since climbed to about $4.9 billion.
Meanwhile, the Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone link is forecast to cost a further $5 billion to $6 billion. The NSW section of VNI West is expected to cost up to $5.5 billion.
Farmers and regional communities across southern NSW have strongly opposed the HumeLink route. That resistance includes areas near Kosciuszko National Park.
Family First used the GenCost findings to attack the current net zero policy on 15 July 2026. Its energy platform calls for ending net zero targets, abolishing renewable subsidies, keeping and reinvesting in coal-fired power stations, unlocking gas exploration, and allowing nuclear power.
Lyle Shelton also called on the NSW Government to keep Eraring open for the long term and to stop further transmission cost blowouts.
Shelton said: “The NSW Government has bulldozed farms, blown billions on transmission lines, with the costs being paid for by NSW families. That’s not a transition plan, that’s an ideological boondoggle.”
Family First argues that households are paying for transmission overruns as well as other costs tied to the net zero transition. Shelton linked the CSIRO numbers to the rising price of NSW energy infrastructure.
As a result, the 2050 GenCost comparison has become part of a wider political fight in NSW. Parties now differ over whether the state should keep backing a renewables-led plan or shift toward more coal, gas and nuclear generation.
