Climate Change Shifts Hail Patterns
New research from UNSW Sydney indicates that hail conditions are shifting towards the poles due to climate change, increasing the risk for winter crops in southeastern Australia.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, reveals that as global temperatures rise, the atmospheric conditions favourable for hailstorms are moving from warmer regions to cooler areas, such as southern Australia and New Zealand.
Lead author Dr Tim Raupach from the UNSW Institute of Climate Risk and Response explains, “Under modelling scenarios of 2°C and 3°C of global warming, we see this overall shift towards more risk in cooler places and cooler times of the year.”
Impact on Agriculture
The research assessed the impact on 26 major crop types globally, highlighting that winter crops like wheat are increasingly exposed to hail-prone conditions during their growing season, especially in southeastern Australia.
The study used three proxies to detect atmospheric conditions likely to produce hail, revealing an atmospheric ‘tug of war’ where warmer temperatures may lead to fewer hailstorms reaching the ground, but those that do may be more severe.
Dr Joanna Aldridge, Head of Research & Development, Catastrophes at QBE, which supported the research, states, “This enables better risk assessment, resilience planning, and decision-making across industries such as insurance and agriculture.”
The findings suggest that potential benefits from a warmer climate, like extended growing seasons, might be offset by increased hail damage risks, complicating adaptation strategies for farmers and policymakers.
Southeastern Australia, including areas from Tasmania to Melbourne and up towards Sydney, is particularly highlighted as having increased hail risk in both historical and future projections.
The study also notes that northern North America and Europe are among the cooler regions likely to experience increased hail risk. Meanwhile, regions such as India, China, and much of Africa might see a decrease in hail conditions, although there is still uncertainty.
According to Dr Raupach, as the atmosphere becomes warmer, it might have more energy, which could lead to stronger updrafts. These updrafts support larger hailstones, increasing the severity of storms that do occur.
However, warmer air can also cause hailstones to melt before reaching the ground, reducing the number of hailstorms impacting crops directly. This dual effect creates challenges in predicting future hail risks accurately.
Last updated: 29 June 2026, 11:54 am
