Monash Experts Discuss Potential Outcomes
The Victorian state seat of Nepean will hold a by-election on Saturday, 2nd May, with significant implications for the Liberal Party and One Nation. Monash University experts have analysed what the election could mean for these parties ahead of the state elections later this year.n
Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, Head of Politics and International Relations at Monash School of Social Sciences, noted that the by-election could reveal the Coalition’s current political standing and One Nation’s potential rise. Jess Wilson’s leadership might be at risk if the Liberals fail to retain their seat, traditionally a Liberal stronghold.n
“The by-election will sort out fact from fiction, whether the Coalition is in deep trouble or is One Nation on an upward trajectory,” Ghazarian stated. He added that One Nation’s current momentum gives it a chance to test campaign strategies before the November elections.n
Labor’s Absence and Voter Impactn
Labor’s decision not to contest the Nepean by-election leaves many of its voters undecided. These voters could be pivotal in determining the election’s outcome, potentially supporting non-major party candidates to challenge the Liberals.n
Dr. Benjamin Moffitt, a Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Monash, commented on the election’s importance. “If they can’t hold this seat, where they have a margin of 7.1 per cent, it’s a full-blown disaster for them,” he said.n
The by-election will also test whether One Nation’s success in South Australia was an anomaly or a sign of its strengthened position in Australian politics, with potential implications for the upcoming state elections.n
According to Moffitt, the by-election might reveal important insights into the state of Victorian and Australian politics. “Sometimes a by-election is just a by-election, but this one might tell us something important,” he mentioned.n
With the absence of Labor, the focus will be on how the Liberal Party and One Nation perform in this critical contest. The results on 2nd May will provide a clearer picture of the political landscape in Victoria and the future of key political players in the region.n
As Jess Wilson has appeared popular in opinion polls since taking over as leader late last year, retaining Nepean is crucial for maintaining her leadership momentum. Losing it could potentially weaken her position and the Liberal Party’s chances in the general election.
