Combined strategies could roughly halve emissions by 2050
A University of Melbourne-led study has found that demand for lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars, vans, buses, trucks and battery energy storage systems could rise twentyfold by 2050, leading to a tenfold increase in supply-chain greenhouse gas emissions.
The research, published in One Earth, found that cleaner production methods alone were insufficient to mitigate the predicted increase. The study examined demand-side decarbonisation strategies alongside supply-side efforts, and found that combining both approaches could roughly halve total lithium-ion battery supply-chain emissions by 2050.
Associate Professor Wen Li, who led the research from the University of Melbourne Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, said: “Encompassing demand-side decarbonisation strategies, such as reducing battery sizes, extending battery lifetimes and promoting shared mobility, could help reduce the predicted global carbon dioxide (CO₂)-equivalent LIB emissions over that period to 2050 by around half,”
Electric vehicle batteries are crucial to clean energy, but production emissions are significant. Most lithium-ion battery decarbonisation research has focused on the supply chain, including sourcing and refining raw materials, manufacturing and end-of-life recycling.
Global modelling from 2024 to 2050
The global supply chain modelling covered battery material production, component production, battery manufacturing, and end-of-life treatment from 2024 through to 2050. It included batteries used in electric cars, vans, buses, trucks and battery energy storage systems.
The study included researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of Sheffield. According to the University of Melbourne, it was one of the first detailed global assessments to examine both supply-side and demand-side factors. The first to examine several demand-side strategies and directly compare them with ambitious supply-side decarbonisation efforts that could be introduced over time.
On the supply side, the research assessed switching battery chemistries, greener factories and recovering materials from used batteries. The University of Melbourne said those changes were essential, but not enough to mitigate predicted emissions increases over that period.
On the demand side, researchers modelled how many batteries would be needed, what size they would be, how long they would last and when they would need replacement through to 2050. The university said battery technology advances and business model innovation could significantly reduce the number of new batteries needed globally for transport and energy storage.
Li, the corresponding author, described reducing demand as “another very large mitigation opportunity”. He also said supply-side decarbonisation remained essential, with cleaner electricity especially important and recycling increasingly valuable.
Without the additional measures tested, the global battery supply chain could generate around 19-23 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions through to 2050. Li said combining supply- and demand-side strategies cuts that to around 9-12 billion tonnes, with supply-side measures accounting for around 3.5-4.7 billion tonnes of mitigation and demand-side strategies accounting for around 6-7 billion tonnes. The research identified reductions on a scale comparable to the annual emissions of the EU.
Lead and first author Dr Haiwei Zhou is from the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology. The team now hoped to improve the model’s regional resolution, as mining, refining, electricity and environmental pressures varied greatly between locations.
Zhou said: “For policy and industry, battery decarbonisation should move beyond regulating production emissions alone.”
Co-author Professor Prakash Singh is from the University of Melbourne Faculty of Business and Economics. Professor Prakash Singh agreed that new policies could help.
Singh said: “The broader question should be not only ‘How low is the carbon footprint of each battery?’, but also ‘How much battery capacity do we actually need to provide the service?’”
