Report Highlights Supply Challenges and Demand Growth
SYDNEY — Shaw and Partners has announced a significant increase in its uranium price forecast, projecting a rise to US$200 per pound by 2028. The investment firm attributes this to structural supply deficits and rising nuclear demand, according to a new sector report released this week.
The report, titled ‘Uranium Super-Cycle – upgrading U3O8 to US$200/lb’, outlines a revised price deck for uranium, recommending investors to maintain an overweight position in the sector. Shaw and Partners now anticipates the uranium spot price to reach US$175/lb in 2027 and US$200/lb in 2028, a notable increase from previous forecasts.
Global Nuclear Expansion and Market Implications
According to Andrew Hines, Head of Research at Shaw and Partners, the recent market volatility highlights the uranium market’s sensitivity to buying pressures. ‘The January spike demonstrated how quickly this market can reprice. If utilities return to the term market in size, we believe the upside move could be significant,’ Hines noted.
The report identifies a growing gap between uranium supply and nuclear demand, with global nuclear capacity consuming around 180 million pounds annually against a production of only 150 million pounds. The World Nuclear Association projects a significant increase in nuclear capacity by 2040, further intensifying uranium demand.
Shaw and Partners’ analysis suggests that new mine supply requirements could exceed 350 million pounds this decade, with supply deficits potentially surpassing 200 million pounds annually if new projects are not developed. Hines cautioned that many slated projects face technical and financial challenges, potentially limiting uranium supply’s role in nuclear expansion.
The announcement comes amid increasing global focus on energy security and decarbonisation, with nuclear energy playing a crucial role in achieving net-zero targets. Countries like the United States, China, and India have set ambitious nuclear expansion goals, further tightening uranium supply.
Despite these trends, utilities have yet to contract replacement-level uranium, a situation Shaw and Partners believes will change as market activities accelerate in 2026. ‘Utilities are not fully covered beyond 2027. Given the long lead times in uranium contracting, 2026 could be the year where we see a meaningful acceleration in activity,’ Hines explained.
Source: newshub.medianet.com.au
